National Bank Worsens Inflation Forecast Amid Economic Pressures
The NBU released its October Inflation Report, projecting inflation to accelerate to 12.5% in 2026 due to infrastructure attacks and rising costs.
🛒Ціни та тарифиPhoto: ТСН: Гроші
Key points
- Inflation projected to reach 12.5% in 2026
- Infrastructure attacks add 0.7 percentage points to inflation
- Gradual decline in inflation expected starting in 2027
- NBU raised the policy rate to 16.5%
The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its macroeconomic outlook, projecting a temporary acceleration in inflation driven by ongoing wartime challenges and economic disruptions.
According to the regulator's October Inflation Report, the forecast was downgraded due to higher fuel prices, expanded year-end budget stimulus, and severe attacks on the country's energy, production, and logistics infrastructure. The NBU estimates that Russian shelling alone adds approximately 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation.
The central bank projects inflation to accelerate to 12.5% in 2026 before beginning a downward trend: easing to 7.3% by the end of 2027 and reaching 5% in 2028. Meanwhile, real GDP is expected to contract by 0.4% this year, followed by growth of 0.4% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028.
The regulator notes that inflationary pressures will gradually subside as fuel price shocks fade, wage growth moderates, and monetary policy measures take full effect. Recently, the NBU raised its key policy rate to 16.5% per annum to support hryvnia savings and stabilize the currency market.
Source ТСН: Гроші — tsn.ua/groshi/nbu-pohirshyv-prohnoz-infliatsiyi-na-2026-rik-tsiny-znovu… ↗
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